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                                                                                                                歐洲原木和木材貿易將在未來幾年發生變化
                                                                                                                發布日期:2022-03-28 09:43:19點擊:

                                                                                                                隨著中歐木材產量下降以及對俄羅斯的制裁導致林產品進口銳減,未來幾年歐洲的原木和木材貿易將發生巨大變化。
                                                                                                                中歐原木市場正處于轉折點。在過去的四年里,該地區大部分地區的云杉樹皮甲蟲爆發對森林造成了廣泛破壞,導致采伐、木材生產和原木出口暫時增加。捷克和德國的蟲害導致過去幾年的木材收成創歷史新高。因此,從 2017 年到 2021 年,每年的原木清除量增加了 15%,處于不可持續的水平。被樹皮甲蟲破壞的木材量在 2019 年達到頂峰,2020 年下降 5%,2021 年下降 24%。受損木材量預計將以每年 10-20% 的速度下降,到 2025 年恢復到接近長期平均水平.
                                                                                                                木材供應的激增被國內鋸木廠(~60%)吸收,鋸木和紙漿原木的出口增加(~40%)。在 2020-21 年利用歐洲和全球強勁的木材市場,以具有競爭力的價格提供額外的木材供應,幫助中歐鋸木廠行業擴張。此外,來自鋸木廠的鋸沫和木片供應增加,促進了木屑顆粒和板材的生產增長。
                                                                                                                隨著木材收獲達到頂峰,原木出口商和消費者將需要適應未來幾年軟木原木供應減少的情況。中歐木材產量將從目前的創紀錄水平下降,該地區可能會從原木凈出口國轉變為再次成為凈進口國。 此外,對俄羅斯的制裁影響了從俄羅斯和白俄羅斯到歐洲的幾乎所有林產品的進口,其中包括 2021 年近 1400 萬立方米的原木和 900 萬立方米的軟木木材。
                                                                                                                中歐木材供應減少和烏克蘭局勢將在未來許多年影響歐洲工業生產、貿易流動和林產品價格。鋸木廠將需要重新關注轉換產量和小直徑鋸切能力,纖維行業應考慮替代物種和木纖維來源,森林所有者將從更集約化的森林管理中受益。此外,國際市場需要適應歐洲軟木原木和木材出口供應減少的情況。

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